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- Weekend 6th/7th May - Picks, Boosts & Free Bets
Weekend 6th/7th May - Picks, Boosts & Free Bets
Tips From Our Experts, Psychology & Advice
This week’s newsletter has more content than last week. We cover the football action across Europe with seven matches from seven different bettors. We also have the lowdown on Canelo Alvarez’s return to Guadalajara as he faces John Ryder.
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Value Price Boosts 🔥
A Goal in the First Half of Saturdays Premier League Matches @ 4.50 (William Hill)
Haaland 2+ Shots On Target, Grealish 1+ Shots On Target & Rodri 1+ Fouls @ 4.00 (Paddy Power)
Salah 2+ Shots On Target & Toney 1+ Shots On Target @ 4.00 (Sky Bet)
Bet365 are offering a 25% odds boost on bet builders today for some games.
Match Preview: Standard Liège vs AA Gent (Saturday, 6th May 2023, 20:45)
Our Expert: @Belgiumbets
AA Gent secured a logical home win against Westerlo on the first match day of the Europe Play Offs, whereas Standard was held to a 0-0 draw at Cercle Brugge. Consequently, Standard is already 2 points behind Gent in the table. Both teams aim to win their Play Off group to gain access to the UEFA Conference League qualifiers. For Standard, this match is already a must-win game as winning the home tie against their direct competitor is crucial in this competition.
When Standard requires a home win in a significant game, they usually achieve it. Their coach, Ronny Deila, can motivate his team like no one else, while the passionate home crowd amplifies the effect. Standard's players often apply high pressure, leaving no breathing space for the opponents, while the fans create a hostile environment for the opposing team. This approach led them to a convincing win against Club Brugge, Genk, Antwerp, and Anderlecht with clear numbers.
AA Gent's team can sometimes be lazy and unambitious. Their midfield is relatively old and slow, and they might struggle in games like this. Additionally, Gent's defense is not the most stable and is prone to making mistakes. Although Gent's attackers have remarkable goalscoring talent and might score, it may not be enough to withstand the relentless Standard wave.
If Standard performs similarly to how they did in previous top games at home, they should win or, at the very least, not lose this game. Therefore, I like the line offered for this match.
👉 Best Bet : Standard Liège +0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 (Bet 365)
Match Preview: Freiburg vs Leipzig (Saturday, 6th May 2023, 14:30)
Our Expert: @punters_corner_
Szoboszlai has been putting in some promising performances for Leipzig in the last few weeks - none better than in the week when he notched 2 goals against the same opponents he faces this weekend. He has now managed a shot on target in all of his last 5 and is playing with a lot of freedom. 1.83 for just a shot on target looks a solid price here with Bet365.
👉 Best Bet: Dominik Szoboszlai Over 0.5 Shots On Target @1.83 - Bet365
🔸Punters corner share all of his picks in his private telegram which is +216 units up this season
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Match Preview: Wolves vs Aston Villa (Saturday, 6th May 2023, 15:00)
Our Expert: @Mgsbets
Wolves host Aston Villa in today's game as they look to secure their status in the Premier League. They come into this game off the back of a humiliating 6-0 defeat to Brighton and as such are yet to officially have their safety secured. They currently sit 7 points outside the relegation zone. With tough fixtures against Manchester United, Arsenal and relegation candidates Everton on the horizon, Wolves will want to get their safety secured early.
Aston Villa are still in the hunt for Europe with 1 point separating them from a Conference League spot and 5 points separating them from a Europa League spot. They lost their most recent match against Manchester United but were undefeated in the 10 matches prior and will want to see a return of this form.
I believe there is some good value in McGinn shots in this game. McGinn has hit at least 2 shots in each of his last 4 matches. This run of games with 2 shots has coincided with a formation change for Aston Villa as they have moved from a 4-4-2 to 4-2-3-1 formation, with McGinn playing in a more attacking role.
This Wolves side gives away a fair few shots so I believe there will be good opportunities for McGinn. In their last 10 games, Wolves have faced 15.7 shots on average a game, and in their last 10 home games Wolves have faced 14.2 shots a game on average.
Aston Villa are again predicted to start with the 4-2-3-1 formation with McGinn predicted to start in the same RAM role so shots look like good value.
👉 Best Bet: McGinn 2+ shots 2.37 (Bet365)
Match Preview: Brighton vs Everton (Monday, 8th May 2023, 17:30)
Our Expert: @Pete_Tscherewik
Brighton take on Everton at the American Express Community Stadium on Monday evening and the Seagulls come into this one full of confidence having beaten Manchester United last time out by a goal-to-nil thanks to a dramatic 99th-minute Alexis Mac Allister penalty.
Roberto de Zerbi’s side will feel like they’re taking on the Toffees’ at the right time having won seven of their eight matches at home against sides in the bottom-half of the table, (7 wins, one draw).
Everton had to settle for a point against Leicester City and probably felt hard done by for their efforts; a solid attacking display and their 23 efforts at goal were ultimately in vain largely thanks to Foxes’ shot-stopper, Daniel Iversen.
Brighton’s destiny is in their own hands at this point of the season as they look for an elusive European spot for 2023/24 and the hosts will be looking to make their mark on the game early here.
Sean Dyche’s side know the games are running out as they continue to fight against relegation and for that reason, shots for the visitors appeal once again here.
The Toffees’ had 23 attempts against Leicester City and are averaging 17.1 shots per game across their previous nine matches and Brighton have conceded 16, 10, 12 and 15 shots in their last four games.
👉 Best Bet: Everton over 9.5 shots @ 2.00 (Bet 365)
Match Preview: Fleetwood vs Ipswich (Sunday, 7th May 2023, 12:00)
Our Expert: @TipsterJWins
Sadly, the final round of League one fixtures is upon us and I'll be taking a look at Ipswich as they travel to the Highbury Stadium to face Fleetwood Town. With nothing left to play for the hosts, I am more than happy to get Ipswich on side as part of our bet.
A win here will seal the 100 point and 100 goal mark for the away side, but it could still see them finish in second place (promoted already) if Plymouth manage to beat Port Vale. Expecting another strong performance here from the promoted side, backing them to win without reply catches the eye at 7/5 (2.4)
They have won 13 of their last 14 league games, keeping a clean sheet in 12 of these games, staggering stuff from The Blues. They have overcome much tougher opponents than they face Sunday Midday and Fleetwood look like a team who are happy for the season to end. Scoring just once in their last 3 games, I expect it will be hard once again for the hosts to do any damage to the league's best. Getting the 1.4 favorites onside to win without reply looks a decent price at 2.4 all things considered.
👉 Best Bet: Ipswich win to Nil @ 2.40 (Bet 365)
Match Preview: Atalanta vs Juventus (Sunday, 7th May 2023, 11:30)
Our Expert: @scottythorn21
Atalanta, currently in 5th place, finds themselves 5 points behind Juventus in the race for a coveted top four spot and Champions League qualification. With only a few matches left in the season, the stakes are high for both teams. Juventus received a massive boost when their point deduction was overturned and several of the teams now behind them feel hard done by.
Atalanta, known for their attacking style of play, have been in reasonably good form this season and their home games have seen a glut of goals. Their league matches at the Gewiss Stadium are averaging 3.19 goals per game.
However, their opponents, Juventus, are no pushovers. A win in this match could mean the difference between qualifying for the Champions League or missing out on it altogether. Juventus matches are far more tame in terms of goals but the match with Atalanta coupled with the high-stakes nature of the match means we should see both teams attack with intent. The last meeting between the two sides resulted in an exciting 3-3 draw.
It is clear that a win is of utmost importance for both Atalanta and Juventus in this match. Atalanta will be looking to continue their three consecutive wins and maintain their hopes of securing Champions League qualification. Juventus, on the other hand, will be looking to cement their place in the top 4 and secure their spot in next season's Champions League.
As well as a goals selection, we are going to back a props bet. An attacking game should also mean we see shots in the match. There were 29 shots when these sides met earlier this season. There was a staggering 36 shots when Juventus visited this ground last season. Both are comfortably above the match line here.
Atalanta’s home matches in 2023 are averaging 26.5 shots per game. This stage of the season quite often brings about desperation. Juve’s league away matches this calendar year are averaging 26.22 shots per game. The latter stages of this match should be littered with shots, especially if the home side are not in the lead.
👉 Best Bet: Over 2.5 Goals In The Match @ 2.10 (Bet 365)
👉 PropsBet: Over 24.5 Shots In The Match @ 1.75 (Unibet)
Match Preview: Newcastle vs Arsenal (Sunday, 7th May 2023, 14:00)
Our Expert: @MaccasValueBets
Both teams this season have produced many great moments and have had an incredible season. The title may be slipping away from Arsenal but it can’t be ignored how well they’ve played. Their attractive football has ripped apart defences and It’s likely they’ll grab one or two on Sunday. Eddie Howe’s outfit wont’t be an easy ride for the gunners. They’ve had a great recent run of form and come into this match slight favourites on the betting markets off the back of 3 impressive wins off the back.
3-1 against Southampton, 4-1 against Everton and 6-1 against Southampton.
Both teams aren’t perfect at the back though. Howe’s defence has only one clean sheet in 10 and Arteta’s men with 2 clean sheets in 10. During that time they’ve racked up an average of 2.6 and 2.9 team goals per game. (3.8 and 4.5 match goals)
Both teams scoring seems a likely prospect but as Arsenal want to keep the pressure on up the top and Newcastle poised to return to the European stage, I see both teams leaving nothing behind in this game.
👉 Best Bet : Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams To Score @ 1.86 (Bet 365)
Fight Preview: Canelo vs Ryder (Sunday, 7th May 2023, 04:00)
Our Expert: @Peteryan04
Saul “Canelo” Álvarez returns to his home country of Mexico this Saturday as he looks to get back to winning ways by beating Britain’s John Ryder.
Last time Canelo was in the ring he suffered a defeat by the hands of Dmitry Bivol. In a fight which saw the Mexican go up to light-heavyweight to try and take a fifth world championship. However, this bout won’t be contested at light-heavyweight, it will be at Super-Middleweight. Which suggests that we will see a different Canelo than the one we saw in the Bivol fight. The reason for this is that Canelo has dominated at 168 pounds for what seems like forever. His record of 52-2-2 speaks to the amount of success he has enjoyed throughout his career. He has wins over the likes of Gennadiy Golovkin, Billy Joe Saunders, and Caleb Plant. Throughout his long career Canelo has shown an ability to knockout his opponents, you can see this by his 62.9% knockout rate. Canelo will firmly have the support from the crowd as it will be in front of a very loud Mexican audience. If the history of boxing tells us anything the judges may favour Canelo it when comes to the decision.
Canelo’s opponent Ryder is on a four-fight winning streak ahead of his championship opportunity. His most recent fight was a win against Zach Parker in London. The 34-year-old has a professional record of 32-5, Ryder’s knockout rate is just below 50% at 48.65%. He has fought big names in British boxing such as Callum Smith and Billy Joe Saunders. Not many people believe that Ryder will return from Mexico with the belt. Yet, there is a strong history in sport of underdogs shocking the world by upsetting the favourite.
Looking at the fight from a betting perspective, Canelo comes into the contest as a massive favourite at 1/18. This of course means that Ryder comes in as a 10/1 underdog. This means that if you were to put a pound on Canelo you would get £1.06, and if you put a pound on Ryder, you get £10 back. The narrative going into the fight is that it won’t go the distance. Yet, you shouldn’t expect an early knockout as Canelo has a history of knocking his opponents in the mid to late rounds. If a knockout were to happen it is very likely we could see some knockdowns.
Best Bet: Canelo to win in round 6 to 12- 10/11 (Paddy Power)
Value Bet: 3+ knockdowns in the fight- 23/10 (Paddy Power)
Longshot bet: Saul Alvarez to Win in Round 7 & John Ryder to be Knocked Down in Round 6- 12/1 (Paddy Power)
👉 Best Bet:
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