Weekend 22nd/23rd April - Picks, Boosts & Free Bets

Tips From Our Experts, Psychology & Advice

We have football tips for you from a range of different tipsters this weekend. We have selections form the Premier League, Championship, Serie A and La Liga ahead of a blockbuster week.

We have also looked ahead to the big fight in Las Vegas as Gervonta Davis takes on Ryan Garcia. There are a host of big fights coming up in boxing and we’ve got the action covered along with giving you some interesting betting angles..

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Value Price Boosts 🔥

  • Man City To Win & Have The Most Corners, Sheff Utd Most Cards @ 2.38 Paddy Power

  • Rodrigo 2+ Shots On Target & McKennie 1+Foul @ 6.00 Sky Bet

  • Julio Enciso To Have 1+ Shot On Target @ 4.50 William Hill

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Match Preview: Crystal Palace vs Everton (Saturday, 22nd April 2023, 15:00)

Our Expert: @punters_corner_

Palace have enjoyed an impressive turn of form since Roy Hodgson returned to the club to see the club through till the end of the season. They have won 3 out of 3 under his leadership and one man who has impressed the most is Eberechi Eze.

Eze fell out of favour under Vieria but has returned to the team under Hodgson and he has more than repaid his faith.

Eze has hit 6 shots on target in his 3 starts under Hodgson (2/1/3) . Everton are a really poor team away from home, so odds-against looks really good here. The 6/1 for 2 shots on target also looks a nice price.

👉 Best Bet : Eberechi Eze 1+ shot on target @ 2.1 // Bet365

Match Preview: Brentford vs Aston Villa (Saturday, 22nd April 2023, 15:00)

Our Expert: @MaccasValueBets

We had a very successful preview last week with a clean sweep on the Chelsea v Brighton game:

✅Brighton +0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.77
✅Brighton 0.0 Asian Handicap @ 2.1

✅Mitoma Over 1.5 Shots @ 1.91
✅Mitoma Over 0.5 Shots On Target @ 1.91

I’m excited to be back previewing another premier league game this weekend!

Brentford's recent struggles in the Premier League have left the bees feeling quite deflated as their fortunes have seemingly swapped with their opposition this weekend. Brentford are without a win in their last 5 games, losing the last three whilst their opponents have won all of their last 5 and will be in great spirits coming into this match after the 3-0 win against Newcastle.

The revitalised Villa squad under Unai Emery's leadership cannot be underestimated. Since Emery took over the once relegation-threatened team in November, they have climbed up the table and are looking for a win this weekend that could potentially push them into a European qualification spot.

Since February, Villa have had the third most points in the EPL and whilst the whole team have put in good performances, in particular Ollie Watkins has shone. Watkins has been involved in more PL goals than any other player since the post-World Cup restart.

Watkins has scored 11 goals in 12 games with an individual xG of 0.69 goals per 90 mins. He is over performing his xG so just be mindful of that when betting companies are trying to entice you back him. He’s anywhere from 2.3 - 2.87 on normal bookmakers to score so I’d urge you to shop around and get the best price if you’re looking to back the in-form man to score. He’s also 3.1 on Betfair Exchange which feels a much more lucrative price to bet on.

Something interesting I stumbled upon earlier was that if you’d backed every single premier league team with £20 this season then the most profitable team would have been Villa and provided a 43% return on investment. If you filter that to just away matches, you would have made £171.80 and a 57% return on investment.

I don’t see Villa as outsiders this weekend and Villa 0.0 Asian Handicap @ 2.1 seems a very respectable price. Brentford won’t be easy opposition and this angle means if the match ends in a draw then you get your stake returned back to you.

Another bet I like on the Asian Handicap is Villa +0.25 @ 1.77. It is a lower price but it means if the match ends in a draw then half of your stake still gets treated as a winner, whilst the other half will get refunded back to you.

👉 Best Bets : Aston Villa 0.0 Asian Handicap @ 2.1 // Bet365 / Betfair Exchange & Aston Villa +0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.77 // Bet365 / Betfair Exchange

🔸Macca shares all of his picks in his private Telegram. It’s fully tracked with a public profit and loss link shared to all members. Over the course of 4 years it’s made 770+ units profit and a 15% ROI.

Match Preview: Barnsley vs Oxford United (Saturday, 22nd April 2023, 15:00)

Our Expert: @TipsterJWins

Barnsley head into this fixture with an outside chance of still reaching the automatic promotion places, part of that is down to the home form shown in recent months. Michael Duff’s side have won their last 8 home matches, dropping points just once in their last 14 games on home soil, making them worthy favourites at 8/13.

Barnsley have been winning at Half time in 7 of them 8 consecutive home wins, making the half-time/full-time Barnsley price of 2.50 appeal. They face an Oxford United side threatened by relegation who are winless in their last 16 matches including the reverse of this fixture where Barnsley won 2-1.

👉 Best Bet: Barnsley HT/FT @ 2.87 // Bet365

Match Preview: Luton vs Middlesbrough (Monday, 24th April 2023, 20:00)

Our Expert: @TorresBetsHA

Chuba Akpom is currently having the season of his life, there is no doubt about that. However, Middlesbrough are doing quite poorly when playing away from home. They have only managed to keep a clean sheet once in 21 matches.

Luton are also a massive threat when they play at home. They have only failed to score in four of their matches at Kenilworth Road this season.They are averaging 1.38 goals per game at home this season. This one should see plenty of goals but I’m backing the visitors to come out on top.

Middlesbrough are averaging 2.60 goals per game in their last 10 matches. Chuba Akpom has found the net nine times during that run. Boro will be keen to keep up the momentum with the playoffs awaiting them.

👉 Best Bet: Akpom to score and both teams to score @ 3.75 on Bet365

Match Preview: Brighton vs Manchester United (Sunday, 23rd April 2023, 16:30)

Our Expert: @Pete_Tscherewik

High-flying Brighton are already having one of the most memorable seasons in the clubs’ recent history and now the Seagulls embark on Wembley this Sunday to take on Manchester United.

Roberto De Zerbi’s side have lost just one of their last nine matches in all competitions (W6, D2) while their opponents on Sunday were dumped out of the Europa League at the hands of Sevilla on Thursday night in what was an all-round, shocking display.

Erik ten Hag described the performance as “unacceptable” and confidence will be low. United have struggled massively since losing both Raphael Varane and Lisandro Martinez to injury and Brighton will be looking to take advantage of their defensive frailties here.

The Seagulls’ shot line is set at 14.5 with 365 and it looks a good angle to go at here. Brighton have averaged 15.7 shots in the Premier League this season and have hit 26, 17, 16, 33, 22 (vs Grimsby) shots in their last five matches.

👉 Best Bet: Brighton over 14.5 shots @ EVS // bet365

Match Preview: Barcelona vs Atletico (Sunday, 23rd April 2023, 15:15)

Our Expert: @scottythorn21

Barcelona are nine points clear at the top of La Liga and they face a stern test against Atletico Madrid this weekend. The lead at the top could be cut to six points, blowing the race for the title wide open as we head into the last eight matches.

Xavi’s side beat Atletico 1-0 earlier this season and I’m expecting them to put in a good performance on Sunday. Barcelona are averaging 14.9 shots per game in the league this season. This average rises to 17.5 when you only factor in the games they have played at the Camp Nou.

There has been a lot of talk surrounding Simeone’s future this season but there is a growing feeling that the legendary coach will remain at the club next season. His combative style and tactical nous have allowed Atleti to compete with the Spanish giants over the years.

Atletico have had fewer shots than their opponents in seven of their last eight matches in all competition. This is surprising for a side that battles it out at the top end of La Liga. Five of their last six matches have seen their opponents manage 14 shots or more.

Barcelona are the cream of the crop domestically and I fancy them to hit the required shots line here.

👉 Best Bet: Over 13.5 Shots In The Match For Barcelona @ 1.74 // Unibet

Match Preview: Juventus vs Napoli (Sunday, 23rd April 2023, 19:45)

Our Expert: @scottythorn21

Italian football has come back to the fore this season. The Milan sides are contesting a Champions League semi-final in what is a throwback to the heyday of Serie A. Mourinho’s Roma outwitted Feyenoord to make it to the last four of the Europa League. It has also been a great week for Juventus. Their 15 point deduction was overturned and they also progressed in the Europa League. To round it off, Fiorentina have also progressed to the last four of the Europa Conference League.

Napoli are the runaway leaders in the league and they are set to lift their first since Scudetto since Diego Maradona played for the club. They came unstuck in the Champions League against Milan. Many expected them to ease past their domestic rivals but Milan have become something of a bogey side for them in recent times.

Napoli take on Juventus this week and they have a chance to bounce back and get the title party in full swing. There is no love lost between these sides and I’m expecting a fiery affair here.

The referee for this one is giving an average of 25.6 fouls per game across his last 20 matches in all competitions. He has officiated two Juventus matches this season and this bet has landed in both of them. Juventus want to return to the summit of Italian football and the crowd in Turin won’t take kindly to Napoli looking set to win the league. There is an intense rivalry between the north and south of the country and this should carry through onto the pitch on Sunday night.

The last five meetings between these sides in Turin have seen an average of 25.2 fouls per game.

👉 Best Bet: Over 23.5 Fouls In The Match @ 1.82 // Unibet

🔸Scott shares all of his picks in his private Telegram. You get much more volume than just the bets you see across social media.

Fight Preview: Gervonta Davis vs Ryan Garcia (Sunday, 23rd April 2023, 05:00)

Our Expert: @Peteryan04

A much-anticipated fight goes down this weekend as Ryan Garcia takes on Gervonta Davis in Las Vegas.

Garcia is coming off a knockout victory against Javier Fortuna back in July 2022. He has taken the boxing world by storm since turning professional at the young age of 17. The 24-year-old made the quick rise to stardom with the help of Oscar De La Hoya’s Golden Boy Promotions. Garcia is an undefeated fighter with a record of 23-0, he has knocked out the majority of his opponents. This can be seen when looking at his 19 stoppage victories during his career, which means Garcia has a knockout rate of 82.61%. The fight will be a big step up for Garcia as you could argue that ‘Tank’ is the biggest matchup of his career.

Garcia’s opponent Davis is also coming off a victory, were he beat Hector Luis Garcia back in January of this year. Davis like Garcia is an undefeated fighter, the 28-year-old has a record of 28-0 with 26 knockouts. This means that he has a knockout rate of 92.82% which shows how lethal Davis is in a boxing ring. Unlike Garcia, Davis is a former world champion. He has held championships in three different weight classes, those classes are super featherweight, lightweight, and super lightweight. This shows that Davis is an immense talent as he has reached the top of the sport.

Looking at the fight from a betting perspective, there is not much between the fighters in terms of the odds. On Paddy Power Davis comes in as a slight favourite at 4/11, whereas Garcia comes in at 21/10. When breaking down the odds if you were to put a pound on Davis you would get £1.36 back.Garcia would earn you a little more money as if you were to put £1 on Garcia you would get £3.10 back. Both fighters have a history of scoring knockouts as they both like to pile on the pressure, this suggests we could see some knockdowns. They are both durable which means it is plausible to think that the contest could go the distance.

Best Bet: Davis to win on points - 5/1

Value: Davis to win in round 4 to 6 - 4/1

Longshot: Both fighters to be knocked down 2+ times- 25/1

Show Us Your Best Ante Post Bets

@scottythorn21 asked Twitter to share some of the worst bets they have on a thread. It didn’t disappoint. Some truly awful bets were share as you can see below.

The end of the season is fast approaching and this got us thinking. We would like our readers to share their best picks from the start of the season that still have a great chance of winning!

Share Your Ante Post bets with @Weekly_Wager on Twitter via tweet or DM!

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As always, feel free to reach out and reply to this email and we hope you enjoyed this big edition of The Weekly Wager!

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