Saturday, August 25th

Premier League: Weekly Wager Bets

The Weekly Wager has taken a look at Sunday’s Premier League matches to bring you four bets for the action.

Scott’s Euro 2024 Predictions

I produce content for a wide range of betting sites. Bringing together both qualitative and quantitative research methods allows me to identify bets across a wide range of markets. Find me on Twitter @scottythorn21

Bet - Wolves vs Chelsea

14:00, Sunday, August 25th

Wolves host Chelsea this Sunday as both teams look to bounce back from their respective 2-0 defeats on the opening weekend of the Premier League season.

Gary O’Neil’s side did the double over the Blues last season. They beat Chelsea 2-1 at Molineux before an even more memorable win at Stamford Bridge in February. Wolves have now won their last three matches against Chelsea but are the underdogs here.

Last season, Chelsea matches saw the third most fouls in the league with an average of 24 per game. They committed 15 fouls the last time they squared off against Wolves so we are singling out Chelsea players for fouls here.

Moises Caicedo was booked and made two fouls and was booked as the Blues succumbed to defeat against Wolves earlier this year. The midfielder has struggled to replicate the form he showed at Brighton for Chelsea but his foul numbers have been solid. He made two fouls against Manchester City last weekend. He averaged 2.8 fouls per game at this summer’s Copa America.

The next player we are backing to make two fouls is Malo Gusto. He made three fouls and received a yellow card the last time Chelsea played Wolves. The right-back endured a torrid afternoon against Man City last weekend and he should be busy here.

• Bet: Over 1.5 Fouls For Moises Caicedo

• Odds: 1.73 Paddy Power

• Advised Stake: 1/3 Units

• Bet: Over 1.5 Fouls For Moises Caicedo & Over 1.5 Fouls For Malo Gusto

• Odds: 4.18 Paddy Power

• Advised Stake: 0.5/3 Units

DB’s Euro 2024 Predictions

@DBspotstrends on Twitter, recognisable by convoluted research threads on the football. Nothing excites me more than a value bet.

Bet - Liverpool vs Brentford

16:30, Sunday, August 25th

A staple of Liverpool under Jurgen Klopp was their intense gegenpress, forcing opponents into turnovers. Despite the departure of the German, Liverpool look set to persist with that plan under Arne Slot. Against Ipswich, Liverpool made 18 fouls. Last season, Liverpool had an average PPDA of 8.9 - the second-lowest in the league. Although it has only been one game, against Ipswich, their PPDA was 8.74. 

Brentford managed 18 free-kicks at Anfield last season, and 20 the season prior when on Merseyside. In the most recent head-to-head meeting at the G-Tech Community Stadium, Brentford accumulated 20 free-kicks as well. With that in mind, the free-kick line here set at 12.5 looks very generous. 

At Anfield last season, Liverpool accrued an average of 12.0 fouls per game, with 2.95 offsides as well - 14.95 opposition free-kicks on average at Anfield. Given that the off-ball system is not too dissimilar under that deployed by Klopp, the free-kick line here is fantastic value. It’s shortened a bit over the last few days, suggestive that it’s an enticing angle, but is still too appealing to pass up. 

• Bet: Over 12.5 Free-Kicks For Brentford

• Odds: 1.72 Bet365

• Advised Stake: 1/3 Units

• Bet: Over 17.5 Free-Kicks For Brentford

• Odds: 6.00 Bet365

• Advised Stake: 0.5/3 Units

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