Monday, June 10th

European Championships: Weekly Wager Antepost Bets

The Weekly Wager is back with a bang as we look ahead to Euro 2024. Our four contributors have been tasked with naming their tournament winner as well as bringing you their favourite bet!

Be sure to check out all of the writer’s profiles to see their bets for the duration of the tournament.

Macca’s Euro 2024 Predictions

You can find me on Twitter @MaccasValueBets - I have been a full time bettor for 5 years. I run a private group that focuses on a wide range of leagues and markets with members gaining access to the very best bets.

Outright Winner

Under the new management of Roberto Martinez, Portugal have transformed into a dynamic and exciting contender.

When Martinez took over, many fans were sceptical after seeing him in charge of Belgium during their crash out of the Qatar World Cup group stages. Many saw him as just a placeholder until someone like Jose Mourinho could step in. However, Martinez quickly proved the doubters wrong. For the first time ever, Portugal won every single one of their qualifying matches. 

They scored an impressive 36 goals and conceded only two, making them the standout team in Europe. Sure, they had an easier group, but their performances were dominant and the squad is brimming with talent, many of whom are at their peak. 

Players like Bruno Fernandes, Bernardo Silva, Ruben Dias, Joao Cancelo, and Diogo Jota will be in their prime for the tournament. Bruno Fernandes, especially, has been on fire. He notched up six goals and eight assists during the qualifiers, showcasing his crucial role in orchestrating the Portugal squad.

And then there’s Cristiano Ronaldo. Even at 39, he’s still a force to be reckoned with, finishing as the second-highest scorer in the qualifiers. His experience and leadership are invaluable, and he continues to defy age expectations. To be realistic, he is 39, slowing down and may be rotated a lot however he scored 10 goals in eight Euro 2024 qualifying games and is Portugal’s all time leading goalscorer with 128 goals in 204 matches.

Martinez’s approach has breathed new life into the team. Gone are the days of the conservative, defensive tactics of the past. Instead, we see a flexible, attacking Portugal that can adapt to different opponents and situations.

Portugal’s got a perfect mix of players hitting their peak, veterans and up and coming talent such Rafael Leao, Vitinha and Gonzalo Ramos. 

I think they easily top their group stage and will likely face up against Holland in the R16. Whilst Holland are a good team, they lack attacking options which I think will ultimately be their downfall.

The only worry is if A Seleção end up in second place of the groups, they see a significant change in fixtures and take on World Cup finalists France.

There’s real confidence in the Portugal camp following their flawless qualification run. They’re priced the same as Spain to win the competition but in my opinion they’re a much more polished team. If they play their cards right, they have a decent path into the final.

I’m backing them @ 9.0 to win.

• Bet: Portugal To Win Euro 2024

• Odds: 9.0 Bet365

• Advised Stake: 1/3 Units

Favourite Bet

I’m diving into the golden boot betting here and going with a bet that’s somewhat predictable but nethertheless looks to hold great value considering France are very likely to make it into the Final.

Kylian Mbappé. Shock.

Mbappé’s move to Real Madrid has finally been completed. It might be dominating headlines, but his focus will be on leading the French line. At just 25, he has already achieved what most players can only dream of. Captain of his national team, scored 46 goals in 77 appearances and only the second player in history to score a hat-trick in the World Cup final.

He’s coming into the tournament having won the Golden Boot in Qatar 2022 with 8 goals.

Despite not scoring at Euro 2020, there’s every reason to believe Mbappé will shine this time around. In the qualifiers, he scored 9 goals, one short of top placed Ronaldo. France might have a tougher group to face with Poland, Austria, and the Netherlands, but Mbappé's world status has always been echoed around being a big game player.

France are among the favourites to win the tournament and Mbappé, being one of (If not the best) player in the world, is expected to lead Les Bleus deep into the competition.

I think at odds of 6.0 he’s a great bet for Golden Boot. I’m also backing a chunkier looking price, which given the correlation between the markets, I think it’s an excellent boost.

• Bet: Mbappe To Win The Golden Boot

• Odds: 6.0 Bet365

• Advised Stake: 1/3 Units

(Longshot: Mbappe Golden Boot & France to win Euro 2024 @ 17.0 Bet365)

Interesting Fact:

You might want to check out the thread below for some insight on value goalscorer in the Euros.

Scott’s Euro 2024 Predictions

I produce content for a wide range of betting sites. Bringing together both qualitative and quantitative research methods allows me to identify bets across a wide range of markets. Find me on Twitter@scottythorn21

Outright Winner

Portugal tasted success at Euro 2016 under Fernando Santos but Roberto Martinez has taken them up a level since joining. The team were dumped out of the World Cup at the quarter-finals stage by Morocco but Martinez has rejuvenated the squad since coming in.

Under the previous manager, the focus was on being reactive rather than proactive. The team opted to sit deep and soak up pressure before capitalising. Roberto Martinez instead wants his team to press high up the pitch and it has worked to devastating effect. Portugal's PPDA (passes per defensive action) was just 8.7 in qualifying for this tournament. Winning the ball in the opposition half means their forwards have been able to receive the ball with a numerical advantage in dangerous areas. It has also translated to defensive stability.  Martinez’s side conceded an average of 0.2 goals per game across their 10 qualifiers.

The former Everton manager boss is also keen for his side to control possession. They averaged 68% possession in their qualifying campaign, only three sides had more. Having the lion’s share of possession has meant they are able to create chances in abundance. Only France averaged more than Portugal’s 19 shots per game.

The excellent performances have of course yielded results. Portugal have won all 10 of their competitive matches under Roberto Martinez. They will face stiffer competition at Euro 2024 but the Portuguese look like a team that can go all the way and have the personnel to boot.

The Portuguese squad is amongst the best in the tournament. The days of relying on a bit of Cristiano Ronaldo to win are long gone. Martinez has plenty of experience he can call upon in the big games. Ruben Dias and Bernardo Silva have been key players in Manchester City’s unprecedented era of success. Joao Cancelo remains one of the best full-backs on the planet. Bruno Fernandes continues to shine for Manchester United and Cristiano Ronaldo remains potent in attack.

There is also a supremely talented batch of players in behind them that feature regularly for some of the giants of European football. The likes of Rafael Leao, Joao Felix, Goncalo Ramos and Pedro Neto are potential game-changers in attack. Matheus Nunes, Vitinha, Palhinha, Joao Neves and Ruben Neves flesh out a tournament-winning midfield.  They also have great defensive depth. Antonio Silva, Goncalo Inacio, Diogo Dalot have all enjoyed fantastic seasons at club level.

• Bet: Portugal To Win Euro 2024

• Odds: 9.0 Bet365

• Advised Stake: 1/3 Units

Favourite Bet

Bruno Fernandes will arrive at Euro 2024 in fantastic form so backing him to score over 1.5 goals in the whole tournament with Bet365 looks a good pick.

 The Manchester United midfielder finished the season on a high by playing a crucial role in the team’s FA Cup triumph. He racked up eight goals in his ten appearances for United after the March international break. The tireless attacking midfielders looks set to play an integral role for Portugal in Germany.

Bruno scored twice at the World Cup in Qatar but he should get plenty more opportunities with this Portugal side more inclined to attack. Fernandes is the joint-favourite to make the most assists in the tournament but is more than capable of bagging goals of his own.

Fernandes scored two goals at the last World Cup, both of which came against North Macedonia. A brace would be enough to see this bet land. Portugal will be heavy favourites in their three group matches and are likely to be in the easier half of the draw when it comes to the knockout stages. This gives Bruno ample opportunity to make his mark.

The Manchester United midfielder has scored nine goals in his last 13 games for his national team. He is now joint 10^th in Portugal’s all-time top scorers list. Martinez has said Bruno will be “essential” in this tournament.

Bruno is seldom injured and should be available for all of Portugal’s matches at the tournament. His ability to remain fit could be key with the short turnaround between fixates. The graph below shows just how reliable he has been for Manchester United this season.

• Bet: Over 1.5 Goals For Bruno Fernandes

• Odds: 2.10 Bet365

• Advised Stake: 1/3 units

Tom’s Euro 2024 Predictions

I cover everything football and write for a number of different betting sites. You can find me on Twitter @WinchySFP if you’re interested in what I do.

Outright Winner

'To Win Outright’ is always a market that divides opinion. England (4.50) are the favourites for Euro 2024, with France (5.00) ever so close behind. Hosts Germany (6.50), Portugal (9.00) and Spain (9.00) make up the top five.

Predicting a winner is tough. Who I want to win and who I think will win doesn't equate to the same nation. Portugal most definitely has the capability of winning the tournament. This squad is full of talent, along with plenty of depth. The price of Portugal appeals.

Portugal cruised their way through qualifying. Roberto Martinez’s men won all ten matches, scoring 36 whilst conceding twice. Yes, it was a group lacking genuine quality, but no other nation achieved the same feat.

Diogo Costa will be the main between the sticks. Ruben Dias and Antonio Silva are the most likely CB pairing. A solid foundation, and one you think can be trusted in defining moments. Joao Cancelo, Nuno Mendes and Diogo Dalot are all in the squad. Only two of three will feature from the off, giving Martinez a positive headache.

Joao Palhinha is the man who will anchor the midfield. Fulham's man has been superb this term. His performances have earned him a potential move to Bayern Munich. Joao will play a big part for A Seleção.

Bruno Fernandes and Bernardo Silva are class. However, their sportsmanship can be debatable at times. The pair are brilliant to watch on their day and can create a piece of magic from absolutely nothing. Vitinha, Joao Neves and Otavio will feature at some stage. That midfield is bursting with quality.

Cristiano Ronaldo. SIXTH European Championship. Outstanding. His longevity is unbelievable. The veteran is a leader and an inspiration, and his teammates will be desperate to win the competition again.

CR7 netted 35 goals in 31 games for Al-Nassr. He notched ten times in just nine qualification appearances for the national team. The man scores goals, simple as that.

Diogo Jota, Rafael Leao, Joao Felix, Pedro Neto, Francisco Conceição, and Gonçalo Ramos are all heading to Germany. Talent appears wherever you feast your eyes. They each bring something different to the squad, which could be a key factor.

The price on Portugal seems slightly big, given their squad depth and quality. Perhaps they should be closer to England, France and Germany. I feel like they hold some value at 9.00.

• Bet: Portugal To Win Euro 2024

• Odds: 9.00 Bet365

• Advised Stake: 1/3 Units

Favourite Bet

With many markets on offer, finalising a single selection was too tricky. Instead, I’ve decided that my ‘Favourite Bet’ will be a double.

Artem Dovbyk (2.50) & Romelu Lukaku (2.00) certainly know where the back of the net is. The Ukrainian heads to Germany after an incredible debut season with Girona in Spain. Few players can rival Lukaku in the goals department on the international stage. I’m expecting the duo to have a successful Euro 2024 campaign.

There are many factors when backing an individual player in any market. However, I struggle to see any negatives regarding these emphatic centre-forwards.

Dovbyk will be full of confidence after his tremendous domestic campaign. The Ukrainian scored 24 times in La Liga, earning the Pichichi award for his efforts. I think the offer price is excellent. There are very few players who have endured better campaigns. Sergiy Rebrov will utilise Dovbyk’s strengths in the way his side operates. He’ll most definitely play a vital role in Germany.

Romelu Lukaku has a whopping 84 goals for Belgium. His nation is in a favourable group with Ukraine, Romania and Slovakia. Offensively, Belgium looks strong. There are several attacking options within the 25-man squad. They’ll be looking to feed Lukaku on every possible occasion.

Belgium netted 22 goals across eight qualification matches. Lukaku scored a remarkable 14 of those. Only Azerbaijan prevented the former Chelsea man from scoring. Ronaldo, Mbappe and Harry Kane fell considerably behind in the standings. The trio bagged ten, nine and eight goals, respectively. It highlights the incredible achievement of the Belgian.

The selection certainly appeals at 5.00. We have two fantastic players who’ll thrive for their respective nations. They’ll both be on penalty duties. That’s a bonus. Let’s hope Artem and Romelu bring their scoring boots and perform as expected at Euro 2024.

• Bet: Artem Dovbyk 2+ Goals & Romelu Lukaku 3+ Goals

• Odds: 5.00 Bet365

• Advised Stake: 1/3 Units

DB’s Euro 2024 Predictions

@DBspotstrends on Twitter, recognisable by convoluted research threads on the football. Nothing excites me more than a value bet.

Outright Winner

France come into Euro 2024 as favourites to lift the trophy behind England. Didier Deshamps will be looking to deliver European silverware back to France at his third attempt, having been left disappointed by a round of 16 exit at the hands of Switzerland at Euro 2020. Prior to that, France achieved a runners-up medal in Euro 2016, as Portugal striker Eder shattered their hopes with a memorable long-distance effort in extra time. 

Heartbreak on the international stage has been an unwanted, recurring theme for the French, who were also desperately unlucky at the 2022 World Cup. They were beaten in the final on penalties by an Argentina side carried by the magical Lionel Messi. 

France did, however, win the World Cup in 2018, and very few changes have been made to that squad by Deshamps. The quality within French ranks is undeniable, and they should be galvanised by recent failures, motivated to secure the trophy this year.

At competitions like the Euros, you have to hit the ground running. From recent qualifying games and friendlies building up to the Euros, it’s clear that the French players understand how to play - they have that chemistry and understanding. Whilst other high-ranking nations have been chopping and changing their manager and formations, France have remained consistent which is a real bonus.

Mbappe lit up the World Cup in 2022, and finished as the top goalscorer. Deschamps will once again lean on his talisman for offensive output, but there are other players who come into the Euros in good form, and can be expected to contribute. The European pedigree in French ranks leads me to agree with the general market, that France will go far in the tournament and secure another trophy for the cabinet.

• Bet: France To Win Euro 2024

• Odds: 5.00 Bet365

• Advised Stake: 1/3 Units

Favourite Bet

Georgia will be making their debut appearance at a major international tournament, and are set to appear in Group F alongside Portugal, Czech Republic and Turkey. It’s a massive achievement for the nation with just 3.7 million inhabitants, and they understandably rank as massive underdogs - 500/1 to win outright, and odds against to qualify from the group stages.

Looking into the Georgia Team Top Goalscorer market, immediately the price for Napoli winger Kvicha Kvaratzskelia strikes me as being extremely short - priced at 3.0 to top the scoring charts for Georgia. As he is expected to account for such a large percentage of the total goals, it has worked to inflate the lines of his teammates, providing value elsewhere. Kvaratszkelia has the ability to rack up shots, he averaged 3.8 shots per game in Serie A this season, although isn’t a particularly prolific goalscorer. He netted 11 times in 34 games this season, a similar tally to his 12 goals in 34 last season, despite playing in the Scudetto-winning Napoli team. 

Georges Mikautadze is the striker for Metz, and had a fantastic end to the season building up to the Euros which puts him in prime position to shine in Group F. He finished the season with 9 goals in the final 9 games, taking his season tally to 14 goals in 22 games - impressive. It’s also important to bear in mind that Mikaudatze plays for Metz, who were relegated from Ligue 1 this season. His approach might be similar for both teams, who are distinct underdogs. Mikaudatze will likely be quite isolated at times, and have to be clinical when chances are scarce - he’s proven to be able to find the back of the net in such scenarios, so it will be a familiar style of football for him.

Georgia are extremely likely to finish bottom, and so are looking at a goals tally in the range between 1-4 most likely. If Mikautadze can grab one or two even goals, that might just be enough to secure the top goalscorer spot for Georgia.

• Bet: Georges Mikautadze Georgia Top Goalscorer

• Odds: 5.0 Bet365

• Advised Stake: 1/3 Units

Our Favourite Bookmaker Boosts

• Kane, Lukaku, Mbappe & Ronaldo to have 5+ shots on target each in the group stages @ 7.00 SkyBet

• Portugal to reach the semi-finals @ 2.62 Bet365

• Kai Havertz to be top scorer for Germany @ 3.25 Bet365

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