Tuesday, June 19th

European Championships: Weekly Wager Bets

The Weekly Wager looks ahead to the second round of fixtures in Euro 2024 after outlining our pre-tournament picks in the last edition.

Be sure to check out all of the writer’s profiles to see their bets for the duration of the tournament.

Macca’s Euro 2024 Predictions

You can find me on Twitter @MaccasValueBets - I have been a full time bettor for 5 years. I run a private group that focuses on a wide range of leagues and markets with members gaining access to the very best bets.

Bet - Belgium vs Romania

20:00, Saturday, June 22nd

Belgium began the tournament with a surprising loss to Slovakia. Although unexpected, the result didn't reflect the whole picture. Belgium had 16 shots and generated 1.7 expected goals but were unable to score. They now face a Romanian team that performed well in their first match against Ukraine but lacks notable star players. Romania will have a tough time against a Belgium squad filled with internationally acclaimed attacking talent, including De Bruyne, Tielemans, Trossard, Doku, Lukaku, and Openda.

The market reflects Belgium's strength, with odds around 1.45 for a win on Saturday. Data from Belgium’s last 12 games, where they had similar odds, shows they won 10 out of those 12 matches. In 11 of those games, they also secured the most corners by a considerable margin, averaging 6.17 corners for and 2.75 against. Betting on Belgium to get the most corners alone is priced at 1.33.

Combining a Belgium win with securing the most corners, which has occurred in 83% of games against similarly matched opponents, offers odds of 2.05. Bookies multiply the odds and add some extra to the price due to the perceived negative correlation—typically, the winning team defends more and concedes corners. However, as backed up by the data above, when a team is a strong favourite, this correlation decreases. The big favourites tend to score and maintain dominance, providing an edge in the market and a bet with positive expected value.

• Bet: Belgium To Win & Have The Most Corners

• Odds: 2.05 Bet365

• Advised Stake: 1/3 Units

Scott’s Euro 2024 Predictions

I produce content for a wide range of betting sites. Bringing together both qualitative and quantitative research methods allows me to identify bets across a wide range of markets. Find me on Twitter @scottythorn21

Bet - Spain vs Italy

20:00, Thursday, June 20th

Spain vs Italy is certainly one of the more mouth-watering clashes in the group stages of Euro 2024. The Italians eliminated Spain from the last European Championships on the way to winning the trophy. There were plenty of fouls in that game and we are backing fouls once again.

These giants of European football often lock horns and while both aren’t at the peak of their powers coming into this tournament, both harbour ambitions of going on to win it. They have won nine major tournaments between them and ruling out another would foolish. With the stakes so high and top of the group up for grabs, this game looks primed to see fouls.

Spain made 14 fouls in the 90 minutes of regulation time against Italy in Euro 2021. The sides have gone head-to-head on two occasions since then. Those matches saw Spain make 24 and 18 fouls. In fact, Spain haven’t made less than 12 fouls in any of the last 10 clashes with Italy.

The Spaniards made 14 fouls in their first game against Croatia and the layer we have singled out made 2 fouls in that match. Robin Le Normand is a combative centre-back and will be key from set-pieces.

Le Normand played one of Spain’s two warm-up matches. He made three fouls and was booked in the 5-1 win over Northern Ireland. This clash with Italy shouldn’t be as comfortable in terms of the scoreline so let’s hope Robin makes plenty of fouls.

Spain have played Italy twice since the last European Championships. Le Normand has played both matches, making 2 and 3 fouls.

• Bet: Robin Le Normand To Make 2+ Fouls

• Odds: 2.80 Paddy Power

• Advised Stake: 1/3 Units

Longshot Treble

This week’s newsletter features a fouls treble longshot that can be backed at 33/1 with Paddy Power. We use the above Le Normand bet and combine it with Vestergaard and Hojberg fouls.

Tom’s Euro 2024 Predictions

I cover everything football and write for a number of different betting sites. You can find me on Twitter @WinchySFP if you’re interested in what I do.

Bet - Georgia vs Czech Republic

14:00, Saturday, June 22nd

Georgia’s encounter with Turkey was brilliant. It’s the game of the tournament so far, that’s without a doubt. Willy Sangol’s men are up against it once again in their clash with Ivan Hasek’s Czech Republic on Saturday afternoon.

I’m hopeful that Georgia takes the game to their counterparts. They’ll have to score to earn a positive result given their uninspiring defence. Giorgi Mamardashvili is a talented goalkeeper, but he can only do so much.

Tuesday night’s meeting between Portugal and the Czech Republic was one sided. Roberto Martinez’s men dominated proceedings. Francisco Conceicao’s stoppage time winner was a dagger to the heart. The Czech Republic must go again, they can’t afford to dwell on the opening round defeat.

BTTS – Yes landed in seven of 12 opening round matches. Euro 2024 has been an entertaining competition in the early stages. With nations becoming desperate for points, the risk factor will creep up another notch. Draws must turn into wins. This clash sums that up perfectly.

Georgia takes on Portugal in their final group match. They’re highly unlikely to earn anything from that fixture. Turkey meets with the Czech Republic. Again, there’s nothing guaranteed.

Georges Mikautadze and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia pose a threat. The pair will be desperate to drag their nation over the line. There’s more than enough quality and experience amongst the Czech side to get on the scoresheet. They’ve scored in 12 of their previous 13 outings.

• Bet: Both Teams To Score

• Odds: 1.91 Ladbrokes

• Advised Stake: 1/3 Units

DB’s Euro 2024 Predictions

@DBspotstrends on Twitter, recognisable by convoluted research threads on the football. Nothing excites me more than a value bet.

Bet - Denmark vs England

17:00, Thursday, June 20th

England got the job done against Serbia, although the performance was perhaps underwhelming. After scoring with their first shot, England could only muster up five shots in total, amounting to 0.52xG. Serbia were equally flat, although they managed more shots and more corners than England in that game. 

Denmark themselves are no stranger to the corner flag. The Scandinavian side amassed 9 corners against Slovenia, conceding just 5 in return. Since the 2022 World Cup, the Danes have taken on average 8.0 corners per game across Euro qualification fixtures and friendlies - massive. They’ve achieved the most corners in 11/14 of those games, albeit against lower-ranking opposition than England. Stylistically, it makes sense. They utilise wingbacks and stretch the field - Victor Kristiansen and Alexander Bah found themselves in advanced positions against Slovenia, creating overloads in wide areas to help Denmark penetrate. 

Given Denmark’s notable record of accumulating the most corners, paired with Denmark’s need for a result to retain qualification hopes, I fancy a front-footed approach. Especially if England can take the lead early on again, this price looks seriously good value.

• Bet: Denmark Most Corners

• Odds: 3.00 Bet365

• Advised Stake: 1/3 Units

Free Bets

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• BetFred - £50 in free bets when you bet £10 - Click Here

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