Sunday, July 14th

Euro & Copa America 2024 Finals: Weekly Wager Bets

The Weekly Wager is looking to round of Euro 2024 and Copa America 2024 in style.

Three of our experts bring you a total of four picks as the world prepares for these mouth watering finals. First up, it’s Spain vs England before Argentina vs Colombia gets going in the early hours of the morning.

Be sure to check out all of the writer’s profiles to see their bets for the duration of the tournament.

Scott’s Euro 2024 Predictions

I produce content for a wide range of betting sites. Bringing together both qualitative and quantitative research methods allows me to identify bets across a wide range of markets. Find me on Twitter @scottythorn21

Bet - Spain vs England

20:00, Sunday, July 14th

England are aiming to win their first major trophy since 1966 when they take on Spain in Berlin. Gareth Southgate’s team got to this stage of Euro 2021 but were eaten by Italy despite taking an early lead. But while everyone else is asking whether or not it’s coming home, we’re focused on a player bet.

Spain won the UEFA Nations League last season and can establish themselves as a real force once again, 10 years after they last lifted the European Championships.

Robin Le Normand will be back in the Spain team after serving a suspension for the semi-final against France. He has formed a strong partnership with Aymeric Laporte at the heart of the Spanish defence and is set to play a crucial role here.

This bet has feature regularly on the newsletter throughout the tournament but the defender remains an appealing price to make at least two fouls ahead of the clash against England.

Le Normand has made two fouls or more in three of his four starts at Euro 2024. He came off the bench in Spain’s final group game and made one foul. He was booked for his first foul of the game against Germany before being brought off at half-time. Robin should feature for the full 90 minutes here so two fouls is doable.

England have forced the third most fouls per game at the European Championships. Their opponents have made an average of 13 per game.

• Bet: Over 1.5 Fouls For Robin Le Normand

• Odds: 2.50 Paddy Power

• Advised Stake: 1/3 Units

Copa America 2024 - Argentina vs Colombia

01:00, Monday, July 15th

The Copa America final also promises to be a cracker. Colombia are unbeaten in 28 matches and they take on an Argentina side that have lost just once since lifting the World Cup in Qatar.

There are plenty of flair players in the attacking phase for both teams. At the back, there are a number of players who won’t shy away from the dark arts so we are backing free kicks in this one.

Colombia’s matches at this tournament have seen an average of 30.6 fouls per game, well above the overall average of 26.2 fouls for the competition. Los Cafeteros’ matches have also seen an average of 3.4 offsides, so over 32.5 free kicks in the final looks a good bet.

Argentina had a straight-froward route to the final and their matches have seen far fewer fouls as a result. At Copa America 2024, La Albiceleste games have seen an average of 24.6 fouls. However, there were a whopping 41 fouls when they competed in the final of the last Copa America against Brazil.

The head-to-head data also shows promise. There has been an average of 37.8 fouls in the last five meetings between Argentina and Colombia.

• Bet: Over 32.5 Free Kicks

• Odds: 1.90 Paddy Power

• Advised Stake: 1/3 Units

DB’s Euro 2024 Predictions

@DBspotstrends on Twitter, recognisable by convoluted research threads on the football. Nothing excites me more than a value bet.

Bet - Spain vs England

20:00, Sunday, July 14th

Spain have been a dominant force at Euro 2024, boasting six wins from six with a 13-3 goal differential. They’ve overcome high-ranking nations, namely France, Germany, Croatia and Italy to get to the final, so should be full of confidence. 

Despite their lacklustre performances at times, England have displayed grit and determination to force their way into the Euro 2024 final. I fancy both sides to cancel each other out in the final game of the tournament. 

Looking into England’s knockout performances - they salvaged a late draw in normal time against Slovakia, thanks to a Bellingham overhead kick to score the game 1-1. It also finished a goal apiece against Switzerland, after Saka cancelled out Embolo’s goal, with a fantastic long-range effort. That 1-1 trend looked set to persist against the Netherlands before Watkins struck late on after appearing from the bench. 

England seem to attract the 1-1 scorelines, which makes this price of 5/1 look quite inflated. Looking into Spain’s knockout games, they eased past Georgia 4-1, but drew 1-1 against Germany in normal time, progression in extra time. Against France, the score was 2-1. 

Turning the clock back, historically speaking, finals have tended to be low-scoring, and draw dominant. 57% of Euro finals since 2000 have ended in a draw. Sky have priced this match at 2.87. That’s an implied probability of 35% - a massive discrepancy. 1-1 has historically been the most likely scoreline, and I personally find it quite difficult to pick a winner. 

The aforementioned points justify Bet 1 and Bet 2, but Bet 3 (in my opinion) is by far the greatest value, and currently priced at 45/1 with BetVictor, and 50/1 with Midnite should they be available to you. In the knockout games, England conceded first in all three of their games. They displayed a tendency to start slow, while Spain were the complete opposite. With that being said, England managed to equalise in all three games, with a second-half goal in all three games, too. Given the prior selections, my hope would be for a first-half Spain goal, and a second-half England equaliser, which isn’t a particularly wild expectation - it’s much more likely that the 40/1 odds suggest. 

• Bet: Draw

• Odds: 2.87 SkyBet

• Advised Stake: 0.75/3 Units

• Bet: Correct Score 1-1

• Odds: 6.0 Bet365

• Advised Stake: 0.5/3 Units

• Bet: HT / FT: Spain vs England

• Odds:41.0 Bet365

• Advised Stake: 0.25/3 Units

Matthew O’Regan’s Euro 2024 Predictions

@Matthew_Oregan on Twitter. I have been tipping bets for TeamCbk for over two years now, as well as working for multiple writing websites. I specialise in EFL/Non-League football but also like to dip into the prop markets when I spot value.

Bet - Copa America 2024 - Argentina vs Colombia

01:00, Monday, July 15th

Lionel Scaloni’s side scraped through Ecuador on penalties before comfortably beating a defiant Canada 2-0. The 46-year-old has found the perfect balance, with his side tough to break down but possessing real star quality in the form of the best player in the world. 

Colombia have won plaudits for their exciting attacking football, topping a group containing Brazil, before dispatching Panama 5-0 and outside favourites Uruguay 1-0 en route to the final.

Argentina have taken 9,7,5, 5,8 goal kicks so far, with Colombia forcing 9, 0, 6, 8, 9 from their opponents. If Argentina do take the lead, expect them to sit in tight and defend the lead, which should present plenty of shots and goal kicks from Colombia.

• Bet: Over 6.5 Goal Kicks For Argentina

• Odds: 2.10 Bet365

• Advised Stake: 2/3 Units

• Bet: Over 9.5 Goal Kicks For Argentina

• Odds: 9.00 Bet365

• Advised Stake: 0.25/3 Units

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