Weekend 26th/27thAugust - 23/24 Week 4

The Weekly Wager Newsletter is back for week four. Europe’s major leagues rumble on as we learn a bit more about this year’s contenders. Speaking of contenders, there is also the small matter of Usyk defending his heavyweight crown against Dubois on Saturday night.

If you enjoy this edition, consider giving the tipsters and our Twitter a follow :)

Follow The Weekly Wager On Twitter 💙

Value Price Boosts 🔥

Bournemouth vs Tottenham

• Son to have a Shot On Target @ 2.0 (Betfair - Was 1.33)

• Tottenham Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.5 (Bet365 - Was 1.72)

• Romero to have a foul in each half @ 4.0 (Paddy Power - Was 2.5

Brighton vs West Ham

• Mitoma, March & Benrahma to have a shot on target @ 6.0 (William Hill)

Arsenal vs Fulham

• Rice to commit a foul @ 2.0 (Skybet - Was 1.73)

• Saka 2 Shots on target @ 2.75 (Skybet - Was 2.25)

Daily Specials

• Over 1 Goal In Each Of Saturday's 6 Premier League Matches @ 3.75 (William Hill - Was 3.25)

• Over 2 Goals In Each Of Saturday's 4 Scottish Premiership Matches @ 10.0 (William Hill - Was 8.0)

• Over 1 Goal In Each Of Saturday's 10 Championship Matches @ 19.0 (William Hill - Was 15.0)

Match Preview: Brentford vs Crystal Palace (Saturday, 26th August 2023, 15:00)

Our Expert: @mgsbets

We are looking at a London Derby here with Crystal Palace visiting the Gtech Community Stadium to face off against Brentford.

Brentford have had a solid start to the season managing a draw against Tottenham and a convincing win against Fulham. On the other hand, Crystal Palace has managed a narrow victory against Sheffield United and defeat to Arsenal.

I am looking at shots from a player who won a lot for me last season after the re-appointment of Roy Hodgson. Since his movement into the centre of the pitch Eberechi Eze has found himself in a lot more shooting positions and with Zaha leaving and Olise injured there is more pressure on him to produce.

Eze has had the most shots out of any Premier League player so far this season hitting 12 in 2 games, 6 of which have come from outside the box.

Brentford faced 10 shots against Fulham and 18 against Tottenham. Crystal Palace will have opportunities to shoot and I believe Eze will be at forefront for this this. With his willingness to shoot from range as well, I believe over 2.5 shots is a good shout for this bet.

👉 Best Bet : Eze over 2.5 shots @2 Bet365

Match Preview: Freiburg vs Werder Bremen (Saturday, 26th August 2023, 14:30)

Our Expert: @scottythorn21

Freiburg narrowly missed out on a Champions League place last season as they finished 3 points behind Union berlin in the Bundesliga table. They have made a winning start to this campaign but it remains to be seen whether they compete near the top once again after the sales of Schade and Flekken to Brentford.

Werder Bremen have lost their last two matches against Freiburg. They also lost 4-0 last weekend as they were faced with the unenviable task of taking on a Bayern Munch side that were licking their wounds after the Super Cup.

I’m backing shots in this match. Bremen’s visit to this ground last season saw 35 shots. In fact, this bet has landed on their last four visits to the Stade Europa-Park. Over the course of these matches, there has been an average of 34.25 shots per game.

Over 26.5 shots also landed with ease in the opening week in these sides’ matches. Bremen’s match against Bayern saw 31 shots, while Freiburg’s visit to Hoffenheim saw 40 shots; the most in the Bundesliga.

👉 Best Bet: Over 26.5 Shots in the Match @ 2.37 Bet 365

Match Preview: Brighton vs West Ham (Saturday, 26th August 2023, 17:30)

Our Expert: @maccasvaluebets

The markets expecting an outgoing affair in this game and it’s hard to argue against that with the high goal thrillers we’ve seen between both teams.

Instead I’m extracting value from a more niche market.

Last season Brighton closed out their games seeing an average of 10.69 shots on target per game whilst West Ham saw an average of 9.38 shots on target per game.

Across English leagues we’re seeing the ball in play rule this season which dictates that referees must add on however much added time they see fit so that ball is in play for a required amount of time. We’ve already seen ridiculous figures added on and this has affected games in quite an exciting way, often with last minute drama and higher goal expectancies. No doubt this also means there will be additional shots in these games.

Last season the premier league saw an average of 8.81 Shots on target per game and 25.29 shots per game.

This season there has been a 14% increase in Shots on target up to 10.05 pg and a 15.26% increase on total shots per game to 29.15 pg.

Brighton closed out the final 13 games of last season with an average of 30.92 shots in their games. Their opening two games of this season have seen an avg of 34 shots per game (34 against Wolves & 36 against Luton)

West Ham closed out their final 13 games of the prior season with an average of 26.25 shots per game. Their opening two games this season have seen an avg of 29.5 shots per game (29 against Chelsea & 30 against Bournemouth)

👉 Best Bet: Over 29.5 Shots @ 1.80 Bet 365

👉 Alternative Bet: Over 9.5 Shots on Target @ 1.90 Bet 365

Match Preview: Newcastle vs Liverpool (Sunday, 27th August 2023, 16:30)

Our Expert: @Pete_Tscherewik

Newcastle host Liverpool at St James’s Park on Sunday afternoon in what promises to be a bumper-clash between the two sides. Both teams have a win apiece so far from the opening two fixtures, the Reds with a convincing one against Bournemouth last time out and Eddie Howe’s side with a demolition job against Aston Villa on the opening day.

Jurgen Klopp’s side arguably haven’t had the best possible preparation coming into this one - the recent and unwanted transfer speculation of Mohamed Salah to Al Ittihad, Darwin Nunez’s link to Chelsea and losing Ibrahima Konate to injury, adding another body to their growing list of absentees.

Newcastle and Eddie Howe were heavily praised by Klopp for the business they’ve done in this summer window (Sandro Tonali and Harvey Barnes) and both have seamlessly slotted in well for the Magpies already.

The Toon ultimately had to feed off scraps last time out as Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City side restricted them to an xG of only 0.25 from just seven attempts. The bookmakers favour the hosts here however at 6/5, with Liverpool hovering at around 2/1.

As was the case last weekend, Liverpool shots is the angle we’ll be looking at once more here. The Reds have hit 26 and 13 shots so far this season and it’s important not to read into that too much as a sample size, but their attacking output and wealth of options upfront is hard to ignore.

Newcastle have conceded 14 and 16 shots in the campaign and an ideal situation for the bet could well be to see the hosts go ahead and for the Reds to have to chase the game and let fly.

👉 Best Bet: Liverpool over 12.5 shots @ 1.95 William Hill.

Match Preview: Brighton vs WestHam (Saturday, 26th August 2023, 17:30)

Our Expert: @TipsterJWins

Tottenham take on Bournemouth in the early kickoff as they look to build on their win over Manchester United last weekend. The Cherries are still looking for their first win under Andoni Iraola but they have proven they can be competitive against any side with their performance at Anfield last weekend. I have a player betting angle for this one

Ange Postecoglou’s system relies heavily on Yves Bissouma’s ability to win the ball back in the middle of the park. He is the lynchpin in midfield when others around him make dangerous runs forward. He made 5 tackles last weekend and 3 in Tottenham’s draw with Brentford.

Bissouma has been a huge defensive presence in the Premier League for a number of years. He averaged 2.9 tackles per game in his last two seasons at Brighton.

👉 Best Bet: Over 2.5 Tackles for Bissouma @ 1.83 Bet 365

Match Preview: Usyk vs Dubois (Saturday, 26th August 2023, 22:00)

Our Expert: @peteryan04

Oleksandr Usyk will defend his heavyweight title against young British fighter Daniel Dubois this Saturday in Poland. It will be an exciting fight as the British fighter looks to cause a massive upset over the Ukrainian superstar.

Usyk has looked unstoppable throughout the entirety of his professional career. He has won belts at cruiserweight and heavyweight. With every fight he wins, Usyk furthers his legacy and gets closer to the conversation of being the greatest heavyweight of all time. He has a professional record of 20-0 with 13 knockouts. Usyk has beaten the likes of Anthony Joshua, Derek Chisora, and Tony Bellew. Everybody thought Usyk would be squaring off against Tyson Fury to fight for the undisputed heavyweight championship, but sadly, it didn't happen. Due to this, Usyk will be looking to make a statement and prove he is the best heavyweight on the planet today.

Dubois has shown great potential his whole career and looks to fulfil his potential and capture the heavyweight titles. He has a professional record of 19-1, with all but one win coming by knockout. It shows how lethal Dubois can be in the ring. Furthermore, it tells us that he only needs one punch to get his hand raised. His only loss comes from Joe Joyce by knockout. There's no shame in losing to a fighter like Joyce because he has shown how ruthless he can be, and Dubois was very young when the two fought. As previously stated, it would be astonishing if Dubois was victorious. However, anything can happen in heavyweight boxing.

Looking at the fight from a betting perspective, Usyk comes into the clash as a 1/14 favourite, whereas Dubois goes into the matchup as a 7/1 underdog. Throughout his heavyweight career, Usyk has yet to knock anybody out. Which means there is a possibility for a decision. However, if there is a stoppage, it could come in the mid-to-late rounds.

👉 Best Bet: Uysk to win @ 1/14 Bet365

👉 Value Bet : Uysk to win by points@ 13/5 Bet 365

Follow The Weekly Wager On Twitter 💙

As always, feel free to reach out and reply to this email and we hope you enjoyed this big edition of The Weekly Wager!

Be sure to check out the tipsters involved!