Saturday, June 29th

European Championships: Weekly Wager Bets

The Weekly Wager secured profit on Matchday 3 but now we look ahead to the knockouts stages. Our experts have another fantastic line up for you to get stuck into.

We also provide you with a summary and betting angle for all of the teams competing in the round of 16 here - Euro 2024 Knockout Stage Guide

Be sure to check out all of the writer’s profiles to see their bets for the duration of the tournament.

Macca’s Euro 2024 Predictions

You can find me on Twitter @MaccasValueBets - I have been a full time bettor for 5 years. I run a private group that focuses on a wide range of leagues and markets with members gaining access to the very best bets.

Bet - Austria vs Turkey

20:00, Tuesday, July 2nd

Austria have been the most foul-prone team at the Euro’s so far, averaging 16.33 fouls per game. Their aggressive play was evident in matches against the Netherlands (16 fouls), Poland (15 fouls), and France (18 fouls). This physical style and use of the Gengenpress has been effective against the better teams in the tournament and will be instrumental to Ralf Rangnick’s side as they progress into the round of 16 and face good opposition throughout. Austria’s approach could lead to a scrappy encounter when they face Turkey, who recently set a record for the most cards in a Euro match with 18 during their chaotic win over the Czech Republic. This game saw 16 yellow cards and two reds.

The combination of Austria's fouls and Turkey's recent card fest has led to a betting line for the Austria-Turkey match set at 5.5 cards, indicating expectations of another fiercely contested game. The physicality of Austria and the volatility of Turkey's will mean both teams may struggle to manage their aggression, particularly with the pressure of knockout stage implications.

• Bet 1: Austria To Commit 14 Or More Fouls

• Odds: 1.91 SkyBet

• Advised Stake: 1/3 Units

• Bet 1: Austria To Commit 18 Or More Fouls

• Odds: 1.91 SkyBet

• Advised Stake: 0.5/3 Units

Scott’s Euro 2024 Predictions

I produce content for a wide range of betting sites. Bringing together both qualitative and quantitative research methods allows me to identify bets across a wide range of markets. Find me on Twitter @scottythorn21

Bet - Spain vs Georgia

20:00, Tuesday, June 30th

Spain have emerged as the second favourites to win the European Championships after their strong showing in the group stages. Only England are above them in the betting coming into this round of fixtures but that is largely due to Gareth Southgate’s men being handed an easier path to the final.

The Spaniard’s clash with Georgia promises to be action-packed. Luis Del La Fuente’s side’s matches have seen the second most fouls in the competition so far with an average of 26.33 per game. They take on a Georgia side that seemingly fears no one. Their direct dribbling has led to them forcing an average of 12.67 fouls per game.

Robin Le Normand is a player we have already had success with on the Weekly Wager at Euro 2024 and we are backing him to make 2+ fouls once again. Spain’s high line means that the defender is often asked to step out and quash counter-attacks. This leads to him making a decent number of fouls.

The centre-back started Spain’s opening two group matches before coming on for the second half against Albania, with 1^st place in the group already secured. Le Normand made 2 fouls in Spain’s opener vs Croatia. He made 3 fouls in the clash with Italy and made 1 foul despite only playing 45 minutes against Albania.

Spain taking a commanding lead against relative minnows is also unlikely to kill the bet. Le Normand made 3 fouls as Spain beat Northern Ireland 5-1 in their final warm-up match before the tournament.

• Bet: Robin Le Normand To Make 2+ Fouls

• Odds: 2.80 Paddy Power

• Advised Stake: 1/3 Units

Euro 2024 Knockout Stages Preview

Take a look out our breakdown of all 16 teams that progressed to the knockout stages by clicking here. There is a betting angle for each team.

Tom’s Euro 2024 Predictions

I cover everything football and write for a number of different betting sites. You can find me on Twitter @WinchySFP if you’re interested in what I do.

Bet - Austria vs Turkey

20:00, Tuesday, July 2nd

My selection comes from the standout fixture of the Last 16 as Austria takes on Turkey. Both sides have been an excellent viewing in Germany. I’m expecting an entertaining affair in Leipzig.

Christoph Baumgartner has impressed. The Austrian has scored once so far in Euro 2024. That goal arrived in their victory over Poland in round two. Ralf Rangnick’s men clashed with France on the opening match day. Baumgartner had two shots on target in that encounter, racked up 0.63xG and should’ve found himself on the scoresheet.

RB Leipzig's man was rested in Austria’s match with the Netherlands. Christoph featured for 30 minutes from the bench. He registered an assist in that impressive victory, showing how much of a threat he is.

Christoph Baumgartner is priced at 1.66 to register a SOT on Tuesday. I’m expecting an impressive performance from our man and his side. We can add over 0.5 Austria goals, which gives us a price of 1.86.

Austria has been fantastic. Their high energy in-your-face style has been a breath of fresh air. Rangnick’s men have scored three goals in their previous two matches and were unfortunate not to score against Les Bleus.

This clash is a must not miss in Leipzig on Tuesday night. Christoph Baumgartner is the man to keep an eye on. All three of his shots have hit the target. He’s averaging 1.36 per 90 across Euro 2024. I’ll have a smaller bet on him to score at 3.50. Both selections are with Bet 365.

• Bet: Christoph Baumgartner Over 0.5 Shots On Target

• Odds: 1.86

• Advised Stake: 1/3 Units

• Bet: Christoph Baumgartner Anytime Goalscorer

• Odds: 3.50

• Advised Stake: 0.5/3 Units

DB’s Euro 2024 Predictions

@DBspotstrends on Twitter, recognisable by convoluted research threads on the football. Nothing excites me more than a value bet.

Bet - France vs Belgium

17:00, Monday, July 1st

Both France and Belgium failed to hit top gear in the group stages, resulting in second-place finishes for respective nations, which not many would have predicted pre-tournament. Granted, Kylian Mbappe missed one game against the Netherlands, but even still, France have only scored two goals so far - one was an own goal, and the other a penalty. That being said, Les Bleus have also only conceded one goal, which was also from the spot. But that isn’t to say Mike Maignan has been devoid of action. 

The AC Milan keeper made 3 saves against Austria in round one, and 4 saves against Netherlands in round two. He made just two saves against Poland, in spite of France conceding 10 shots. France have not exactly leaked chances, but a fairly high amount of opposition shots lead to Maignan saves. Against Austria, 6 shots led to 3 saves. Against the Netherlands, 8 shots led to 4 saves, and against Poland, 10 shots led to 2 saves. 

Belgium failed to score against both Ukraine and Slovakia, but the chances were there. Behind France and Croatia, Belgium have the highest xG underperformance (4.2xG, 2 goals) of any nation at Euro 2024. Mostly culpable is Romelu Lukaku, who has failed to ripple the net from 1.7xG. The Red Devils had 12 shots against Ukraine, 20 shots against Romania and 16 against Slovenia to further emphasise the point - in all three games, Belgium have forced at least three saves from the opposition goalkeeper. 

This bet has landed in 2/3 for France so far, and 3/3 for Belgium. A positive game state would be a France lead, which is likely. It’s a nice matchup, and a massive price offered by PaddyPower - bet365 are 1.8 for the same bet. 

• Bet: France Goalkeeper 3+ Saves

• Odds: 2.40 PaddyPower

• Advised Stake: 1/3 Units

Matthew O’Regan’s Euro 2024 Predictions

@Matthew_Oregan on Twitter. I have been tipping bets for TeamCbk for over two years now, as well as working for multiple writing websites. I specialise in EFL/Non-League football but also like to dip into the prop markets when I spot value.

20:00, Tuesday, July 2nd

Austria vs Turkey looks set to be the tie of the knockouts, with both sides dazzling and entertaining the masses in the group stages. They lock horns in Leipzig, with blood, sweat and tears expected. Cue the 0-0.

Austria topped a strong group ahead of Netherlands, Poland and France. Despite losing their opening match in a tight encounter against France, Ralf Rangnick’s side beat Poland 2-1 and Netherlands 3-2 in end-to-end affairs.

His sides press from the front, giving the opposition little rest bite as they look to force turnovers in advantageous areas. Austria have had 27,12 and 23 tackles in their three matches thus far, drawing 15,8 and 18.

Their high-octane style of play has won the plaudits of many neutrals. They have accumulated 3.84 xG, conceding 5.54 xG.

Turkey have also been extremely entertaining. Vincenzo Montella’s side started their campaign with a 3-1 win against Georgia- a game many described as the game of the tournament. Next, they were swept aside 0-3 by Portugal, before a feisty, tetchy and dramatic winner-takes-all game against Czech Republic, a game in which Turkey emerged as 2-1 winners.

They’ve had 18,21,15 tackles, drawing 23,15,9, with Czech Republic’s red card in the finale perhaps restricting the tackle count.

Neither side will shy away from their style of play that has been successful, so it should be an end-to-end game. When the sides met in a friendly in March, Austria won 6-1. While we might not see as many goals as this, there are plenty of signs that point towards a successful betting game. 

• Bet: Over 2.5 Goals

• Odds: 1.99 Bet365

• Advised Stake: 1.5/3 Units

Longshots:

Both teams to score in both halves @15.00 0.25/3

Over 17.5 Austria tackles & Over 16.5 Turkey tackles @3.00

Free Bets

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