England v France riddiculous price boosts🤯

It's Friday! 👋, we're glad to see you here and hope you enjoy the fourth episode of The Weekly Wager. Last week both of our main preview tips won again! We've got another two previews for you and the best price boosts available at the time of writing!

Price Boosts 🔥

• Kane and Mbappe Over 0.5 shots on target @ 3.0 (was 2.0)

• Lionel Messi Over 1.5 shots on target @ 3.0 (was 2.0)

• Coming tomorrow: Kane Over 0.5 shots on target @ 2.5 (was 1.44)

• Harry Maguire Over 0.5 fouls @ 2.0 (was 1.3)

(We have to let you know the bookmakers on our website as the email providers don't like mentioning them here.)

Match Preview: Morocco v Portugal (Saturday, 10 Dec 2022, 15:00)

Our Expert: Scott Thornton (@Scottythorn21)

Fernando Santos caused a stir by benching Cristiano Ronaldo for Portugal’s 6-1 romping of Switzerland. The new-look front line looked dynamic and energetic. Santos has a big decision to make ahead of the quarter-final against Morocco.

It’s inconceivable that Ramos will be dropped after netting a hat-trick so expect Portugal to line-up in a similar manner on Saturday. The increased work ethic from the forwards saw a greater number of throws in the match. There were 45 throws in Portugal’s last match. Portugal’s matches in 2022 prior to that matches averaged just 35.27 throws per game.

Morocco’s matches in 2022 are averaging 41.31 throws per game. Their four matches at the World Cup are averaging 39.5 throws per game. Three of those four matches have seen 40 or more throws.

Portugal ahd 15 shots against Switzerland despite the fact they had a solid lead early on. If they had been chasing a goal deeper into the match, it is very likely they would have had more attempts.

Morocco surrendered possession against Spain and opted to remain compact. Their opponents this time around have a number of players who are more likely to take the opportunity to shoot. The Portuguese would manage far more than the 7 shots that Spain did in the 90 minutes if they are afforded 74% of the ball.

Portugal are averaging 13.5 shots in competitive matches this year. That averaging climbs to 17 shots in matches where they have been priced similarly to win.

👉 Best Bets:

-Over 38.5 Throws In The Match @ 1.83 Bet 365

-Portugal 14+ Shots @ 1.83 Paddy/Betfair

👉 Longshot: Over 16.5 Shots For Portugal & Over 40.5 Throws In The Match @ 7.00 Bet 365

Match Preview: England v France (Saturday, 10 Dec 2022, 15:00)

Our Expert: James (Macca) (@Maccasvaluebets)

There is no obvious favourite as England and France get ready to play each other in a highly anticipated World Cup quarterfinal. Both sides have played well so far in the competition, with France easily defeating Poland and England winning all three of their games during the group stage.

England has impressed with their attacking prowess in their three matches against Iran, Wales, and Senegal, scoring a total of 12 goals. At the other end of the pitch, they have also been very solid at the back however France will be seen as their first 'proper' test in this department.

Gareth Southgate's decision on whether to go with a four-man defence or switch to the three-man defence with wing-backs that he relied on in past tournaments has been called into question due to Kylian Mbappe's presence. Many believe Southgate will stick with a four man defence but nothing is for certain until the team sheets are announced.

Into the data

As this game will be much more competitive for both teams I have dug into the data for each team when they face teams of similar quality.England 5.33 corners on average when playing opponents of similar quality. That number drops slightly to 5.2 when filtering games out under Southgate's management.

In France's last 10 competitive international games against a similar level of opponent (France going off at odds of 2.25 or above to win the game) they have lost on corner counts 9 times and conceded an average of 6.4 corners.

Despite England not picking up any cards thus far in the tournament, I'm confident both teams will pick up a card. This is going to be a more competitive game and both teams will be up against a higher calibre of players. The last time England played France, there were two red cards and it was just a friendly game.

👉 Best Bet: Both teams to get a card and England over 2.5 corners @ 1.80

👉 Longshots / Bet Builder Train:

-Both teams to get a card and England over 3.5 corners @ 2.33

-Increase the team corners by 1 each time up to England over 6.5 corners @ 7.7

-Both teams to get 2+ cards and England over 2.5 corners @ 3.85

-Increase the team corners by one each time up to England over 6.5 corners @ 16.5

(Obviously don't overstake and be cautious on higher lines)

That's it from us. We hope you enjoyed the fourth edition and we'll be back next Friday.

As always, feel free to reach out and reply to this email.